The Paradoxical Power of Habit: Cigarettes as a Product Case Study

Whenever I engage in a conversation with a product leader, a recurring question arises: "What's your favorite product?"

More often than not, I gravitate towards products that solve real problems, stand out with their honesty, demonstrate innovation, and adhere to the Rams 10 design principle. Yet, despite all these criteria, the cigarette remains a product that endlessly intrigues me. While I've hardly smoked, the unwavering demand for cigarettes in the market has always captured my attention.

Cigarettes challenge our conventional understanding of product success. Despite the glaring health warnings and alarming images plastered on every pack, millions worldwide are unwavering in their loyalty. It isn't the brand messaging or user experience that captivates my curiosity. Instead, it's the undeniable force of habit.

Dive into the Numbers:
India, with its sprawling demographics, provides a unique perspective on this trend. Data from 2016-17 hints at nearly 19 million smokers in the nation. However, for a more updated view, we should consider the World Health Organization's data from 2018.

According to this data, the percentage of smokers in India was 13.4% (men 20.6%; women 5.9%). Assuming that this percentage is constant across all age groups, we can estimate the number of smokers in India by multiplying it by the population of each age group. Based on the data from Worldometer, the people of India in 2023 are projected to be 1.4 billion and the age distribution is as follows:

0-14 years: 25.69% (0.37 Billion people)
15-64 years: 67.51% (0.96 Billion people)
65 years and above: 6.8% (0.097 Billion people)

Using these numbers, we can estimate the number of smokers in each age group as follows
0-14 years: 13.4% of 0.37 Billion = 0.05 Billion smokers
15-64 years: 13.4% of 0.96 Billion = 0.13 Billion smokers
65 years and above: 13.4% of 0.097 Billion = 0.0130 Billion smokers

The total number of smokers in India is then estimated to be: 0.2 Billion smokers

Habit's Stranglehold:

What can we learn from the persistent popularity of cigarettes? 

The key takeaway is clear yet profound: the dominant role of habit in driving product loyalty. It's not always the groundbreaking or user-centric products that dominate the market, but rather those that seamlessly integrate into the daily lives of consumers.

In multiple areas of our lives, our choices aren't determined by what's best, but by what's familiar. This pattern isn't exclusive to tobacco but is evident in various consumer behaviors.

The Financial Reality:
Beyond the well-known health implications, the economic impact of smoking is pronounced when projected over a lifetime. In India, the pricing dynamics of cigarettes fluctuate due to factors such as brand and quality, leading to an average cost ranging from ₹99 to ₹289 per pack of 20 cigarettes.

 Given the backdrop of the average life expectancy of Indian smokers — 38.5 years for men and 42.4 years for women — and assuming the initiation age of 18, we can derive the following lifetime expenditure on cigarettes:

For Men
- Starting Age: 18 years
- Average Life Expectancy: 38.5 years
- Years of Smoking 20.5 years

-At a rate of ₹99 per pack
[ (38.5 - 18) * 365 * 99.23 ]
This culminates in an expenditure of approximately ₹748,386.

- At a rate of ₹289.42 per pack
[ (38.5 - 18) * 365 * 289.42]

The expenditure escalates dramatically to ₹2,161,117

For Women:
Starting Age: 18 years
Average Life Expectancy: 42.4 years
Years of Smoking: 24.4 years

- At a rate of ₹99 per pack
[(42.4 - 18) 365 * 99.23 ]
This results in a lifetime spend of about ₹884,021.

-At a rate of ₹289.42 per pack
[(42.4 - 18) * 365 * 289.42 ]

The investment inflates significantly to ₹2,562,061.

In Conclusion:

When faced with the age-old question about my favorite product, my answer unerringly points to cigarettes. Not as an affirmation of their value, but as a remarkable case study in understanding human tendencies in product consumption.

The crux of product success isn't just about innovation; it's about embedding products into the daily routines of consumers. In the grand race of market dominance, it isn't the best product that wins but the one that has mastered the art of habit formation.


PS: This article delves into product management insights and the dynamics of human behavior.